As the U.S. presidential race is heating up, the betting markets are finally taking on a new hue for the first time in a few weeks. Vice President Kamala Harris is said to be ahead of former President Donald Trump according to PredictIt, 51% chance compared to 49% of voting chances for Trump. Such is a significant moment given that the elections are entering the final stages.
However, Trump is still ahead on other main betting platforms. Polymarket puts Trump’s chances at 59.5% to Harris’s 40.6%, while Kalshi puts the favor very much in the same direction, at 56% of Trump’s against 44% Harris. The latest odds from Smarkets put Trump at 58.2%. Although these slight variations exist, Harris’s supporters see hope in her recent gains because betting markets react to changing polling data and campaign events.
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast shows it as very tight, with Harris at 49% to Trump at 50%. According to the Economist forecast, Harris is ahead by a narrow margin, with a 52% chance of winning. These odds reflect a more general tightening in the race, with both candidates trying to move undecided voters and shore up their bases.
Election betting markets have commanded much attention this season as experts have taken arguments about their predictive power. The markets are seen by some as important indicators of how the race is going while others see partisan preferences among individual bettors as what puts the results out of kilter.
With Election Day looming, it’s yet to be seen if Harris’s upward trend on betting sites translates into votes, or if Trump’s broader market lead will continue. In any event, the surge in betting activity underlines the high interest and unpredictability of this year’s race.
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